Hey everyone,

So a few things caught my eye this week.

Singapore banks (as we all know!) have had a remarkable run. OCBC actually leads the trio in terms of its year-to-date gains while DBS is in second and, no surprises here, UOB in last spot.

But what's been driving it? It's a mix of things. Elevated interest rates since 2022 have certainly helped but I'd actually argue that the wealth management and bancassurance businesses are the bigger sentiment driver right now. Recurring, AUM-based fee revenue is more reliable than net interest income (NII), which is inherently more volatile.

The numbers bear that out as DBS and OCBC have been absolutely crushing it on the wealth management side of things. And they’ve done all this while keeping costs low, too.

It is worth noting though - banks are cyclical. This stellar run can reverse if growth in wealth management slows or a recession hits. Something to keep in mind if you're heavily exposed to the sector.

In this week's issue: a framework for thinking about gold after it wiped out all its 2026 gains, a real-numbers breakdown of what a family trip to Koh Samui actually costs, and a deep dive on why the FX fees your bank charges are costing you more than you think.

Let's get into it.

Gold has had a rough few weeks. After a strong run earlier in the year, it's given back essentially all its 2026 gains. That’s been down to a few things but primarily a more hawkish-than-expected stance from the Fed and its incoming Chair Kevin Warsh.

That’s resulted in a stronger US dollar and a weaker gold price. And the question I've been getting a lot is: when do you buy gold? Is it a good time now that it’s fallen?

It's also the wrong question. And I say that not to be contrarian but because the framing itself leads you somewhere unhelpful.

Trying to time when to buy gold is basically the same thing as trying to time when to buy equities. Almost nobody gets it right consistently (sure, you might get it right once or twice), and the attempt usually results in either buying at the top - when the “story” is most compelling - or sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip that may not arrive at the level you expected.

The better question is: what's my target allocation for gold?

For me, personally, it's 10%. That's enough to make a meaningful difference in a portfolio without being so heavy that underperformance in gold (as we're seeing right now versus equities and which has happened in historical periods, too) weighs my whole portfolio down.

Once you have a target, the job becomes simple. You work your way towards that allocation gradually, regardless of where the price is. You're not betting on a short-term move, you're building a position at a deliberate pace that’s actually going to be for the long term.

One thing worth understanding about gold's long-run returns before you decide on your allocation. Historically, gold has delivered average annualised returns of roughly US CPI (inflation) plus 2% to 3%, so around 5% to 6% in nominal terms.

Post-1971, when the US came off the gold standard, those annualised nominal returns have been closer to 8% to 9%. It's not a growth asset in the same way equities are but it's not just a hedge either.

It has genuinely compounded over long periods yet you also have to be cognisant of the flip side of that. There are long, long stretches where the yellow metal has either traded sideways (2013-2019), or has been in a prolonged downturn (1980-2000).

The case for holding some gold is structural. Central banks hold it and if you’re still of the opinion that dollar weakness is likely longer term, it’s an asset that tends to rise. These aren't reasons to chase it after a big run but there are certainly reasons to have a considered allocation and stick to it.

If gold has pulled back from your target, that's actually an argument for adding, not for waiting. Not because you think you've timed the bottom but because you're simply rebalancing back to where you’ve decided you wanted to be.

By having this allocation framework in place, we can be more methodical about gold’s position in our portfolio rather than chasing it or second-guessing whether right now is a “good” time to buy.

Here's something worth checking. Open your banking app and look at the exchange rate your bank gave you the last time you spent on a credit card overseas or made an international transfer.

Then compare it to the rate on Google or XE.com for the same currency pair.

They won't match. And that gap, usually 2 to 3%, isn't a rounding error. It's a margin your bank is quietly pocketing on every foreign currency transaction you make.

I've been using Wise since 2017 for anything involving a currency border: overseas spending, international transfers, holding foreign currency balances.

In the video I walk through how it actually works, what it costs compared to the big Singapore banks (the numbers are pretty stark), and when it makes sense for your situation.

This video is sponsored by Wise but the numbers and the take are my own.

Get your free Wise card here: https://wi.se/timtalks-june25

If you’re a decision maker at your company, you need to be on the bleeding edge of, well, everything. But before you go signing up for seminars, conferences, lunch ‘n learns, and all that jazz, just know there’s a far better (and simpler) way: Subscribing to The Deep View.

This daily newsletter condenses everything you need to know about the latest and greatest AI developments into a 5-minute read. Squeeze it into your morning coffee break and before you know it, you’ll be an expert too.

Subscribe right here. It’s totally free, wildly informative, and trusted by 600,000+ readers at Google, Meta, Microsoft, and beyond.

There's no shortage of travel content online. But almost all of it is built for couples or solo travellers.

The moment you add two kids and factor in the actual cost of a family trip, the numbers look completely different, and nobody really talks about that honestly.

So I wanted to share my latest “What It Costs”. We recently did three nights in Koh Samui. Here's the full cost in SGD.

Flights: S$2,000. Samui used to be served exclusively by Bangkok Airways, which made it expensive by default. Scoot now flies there direct too, and even with Scoot, return flights for four came to $2,000. Not cheap but the timings work better for kids.

Accommodation: S$1,500. We stayed at the Kimpton Kitalay, about 10 minutes from the airport and right on the beach. Standard room, breakfast for all of us included, plus a rollout bed for the youngest. Good kids' club with structured activities throughout the day, which matters when you're travelling with young ones.

Transport: S$100. Airport transfer through SmackOne, then Grab for getting around during the trip. A larger van for six (we were travelling with grandparents) ran about $20 per trip. Simple enough for what you’re likely to be doing.

Food and activities: S$1,210. Highlights were a dinner at Two Fishes, a solid Italian about 15 minutes from the hotel ($160 for six), a beachside BBQ at the hotel that came with a full fire show ($400 for six), lunch at Sabienglae for Thai seafood plus an inflatable obstacle course on the beach ($200), and a couple more meals out. Samui punches above its weight on food.

Grand total: S$4,810 for three nights, four days for a family of four. Flights, a Kimpton stay, transfers, activities, and all meals included.

If you're planning something similar, budget S$4,500 to S$5,000 for a comparable experience. It's not a budget trip but it's not Maldives territory either. For a short school holiday with kids, it works.

If there's a topic you'd like me to break down in a future edition, hit reply and let me know. The best ideas in this newsletter come from your replies.

Until next week,

— Tim

1. Investing Made Simple: A self-paced course that walks you through building a proper investment portfolio from scratch. ETFs, allocation, brokers, and the mindset to stay consistent. Everything you need to start and keep going. Join here.

2. Miles Made Simple: A strategy guide for earning and redeeming KrisFlyer miles the right way. If you're flying out of Singapore and not optimising your credit card spend, you're leaving a lot on the table. Get the guide here.

3. Got a question? Submit it here and I might answer it in a future edition.