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🎯 Personal Finance Quick Action
Now, we’re at the early stages of a war in Iran which could be ended quickly…or not. The truth is no one knows but the impacts on the supply chains and of oil markets will be much longer lasting – that seems to be a consensus everyone can agree on.
So, with higher oil prices and relatively higher expectations of inflation, where do a lot of people look for comparisons in terms of history?
Typically, the 1970s. That’s because it was a period characterised by “stagflation”. Simply put, that is higher inflation and lower economic growth.
The below chart from BofA is an interesting one that illustrates what the best-performing assets were for each year in the 1970s and, as we can see, gold features prominently.
But I also found it interesting that small caps was in there. Historically, we know small caps offer higher returns over long, long stretches of time but that hasn’t been the case (relative to larger cap companies) over the past 15 years or so.
Of course, all this is just history but it does throw up an interesting comparison. It’s far too early for us to make massive assumptions about how we should allocate based on how the 1970s played out.
For one, in 2026 we also have Artificial Intelligence (AI) disrupting everything from white-collar work to logistics. Productivity could certainly significantly increase and that would be deflationary.
If we take away anything from this returns chart, it’s that diversification in any portfolio is an absolute must.
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💳 Card & Miles Hack of the Week
There’s always a debate between which one is better when it comes to credit card spending; cashback or miles.
Now, I’m clearly in the miles camp but this debate tends to throw up extreme points of view when it comes to which one is superior.
The issue, at least in my view, is that it all comes down to is monthly spending. If you’re spending a decent amount each month (so over $1,500 or $2,000) on discretionary spend, then air miles cards offer better value.
If you’re just starting out in your career or a recent grad that’s not spending that much (so sub-$1,500 per month) then cashback makes sense.
Granted, the case for earning miles has gotten weaker given the devaluations to the KrisFlyer programme but – even with that – I still think miles offers better value if you travel at least once a year.
Remember, money “saved” by redeeming for flights in Economy can still offer decent value on popular routes during peak periods.
It’s also the topic of my latest deep dive on YouTube below. It’s certainly something to ponder for those who are trying to decide between the two.
📷 YouTube Deep Dive
Check out my latest YouTube video! Subscribe and follow along as I share a weekly tip on my Tim Talks Money channel.